· We assess that greatly increased worldwide counterterrorism efforts over the past five years have constrained the ability of al-Qa’ida to attack the US Homeland again, however, that this level of international cooperation may wane as 9/11 becomes a more distant memory.
· (W)e judge that al-Qa’ida will intensify its efforts to put operatives here…as a result, we judge that the United States currently is in a heightened threat environment.
· We assess that al-Qa’ida will continue to enhance its capabilities to attack the Homeland through greater cooperation with regional terrorist groups. Of note being, al-Qa’ida in Iraq (AQI).
· We assess that al-Qa’ida’s Homeland plotting is likely to continue to focus on prominent political, economic, and infrastructure targets…al-Qa’ida will continue to try to acquire and employ chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear material in attacks and would not hesitate to use them.
· We assess Lebanese Hizballah, which has conducted anti-US attacks outside the United States in the past, may be more likely to consider attacking the Homeland over the next three years.
· We assess that the spread of (the) West’s radical Muslim population is expanding. The arrest and prosecution of a small number of violent Islamic extremists inside the United States…(indicates the) Homeland Muslim terrorist threat is not as severe as it is in Europe.
· We assess that other, non-Muslim terrorist groups…probably will conduct attacks over the next three years…on a small scale (in the Homeland).