JOHN FENZEL

A Letter from Dujiangyan, China: Finding Hope in Rubble....

I just received this extemely poignant letter from a young friend in China--"Frank"--whose hometown was destroyed in the May 12th earthquake.  We have been praying for him and his family.  If words can bring tears, this one will certainly achieve that, in spades....

 

Dear John,

 

How are you these days?  It’s been a long time....  We are the survivors of the big May 12th earthquake.  Now my family is safe, my parents are living in the countryside.  The big earthquake destroyed our houses, our beautiful hometown. We lost many things.  My hometown, Dujiangyan is not far from Wenchuan, now the beautiful city has been reduced to ruins, many people dead, many buildings destroyed ……..

 

That day, I'll never forget, at that time, I was sitting in the classroom ... suddenly, we all felt the ground shake, and the room also shook.  We all ran out of the classroom.  At the corridor, I couldn't stand up...many bricks fell off the roof...I tried my best to rush out.  At that time crying, shouting could be heard everywhere.  I said to myself : " No , no, my life won't end at this moment...I will do many things, and my dream....."

 

When I arrived the playground, I was so weak and tired that I got onto my knees.  At that moment, we saw many buildings around us collapse...many students and teachers were crying. I prayed to God for my parents, my family's safety.  Still, we felt the ground shaking.  Parents rushed to school to see their children.  

 

I prayed, prayed.....Suddenly, I saw my parents coming toward me.  I hugged my mom...she cried..and my dad said: "we are all safe, but our house was destroyed.“  I said: "the most important thing is that we are safe." 

 

My parents asked me to stay in the school.  They would go to see my grandparents.

 

I thanked God ……

 

The next day, I went downtown to see my house.  When I arrived, I saw the familiar roads, buildings, the houses , all the sights I recalled from my days of childhood.  I was very sad.

 

The whole city was like a “death-city."  ...The dead bodies could found everywhere, people crying, shouting...nurses, doctors, soldiers were busy with their work.  I wanted to cry, "who can tell me, why?"

 

Nearly 2 months passed.  Many people grew more anxious with every passing day, and many people still had no news. Our senior three students in DJY, moved to another city near Chengdu.  Now we are studying, living here, preparing for our College Entrance Examinations.  The government offers excellent foods and facilities for us.

 

The earthquake was terrible, but the world is full of love.  Today, we are also sad at the news that the terrible earthquake killed so many people around us. But we do believe we can be strong and brave when facing a terrifying natural disaster.  We also believe we eliminate our psychological shadows and actively prepare for the College Entrance Examination. 

 

So I will work hard to rebuild our beautiful hometown in the future.

 

After the exam, I want to be a volunteer to help more people, to help more survivors, help them to learn to smile again...to be brave and strong.

 

Because tomorrow is another day.

 

Only now, has a computer been available for me to use...and to write to you.

 

Best wishes for you.

 

Yours,

 

Frank

J-Curve by Ian Bremmer: China's Dilemma (Executive Summary)

For those who are interested in the course China is taking as we approach the Summer Olympic Games in Beijing, here is an executive summary of Ian Bremmer's chapter on China (pp. 237-263) in his excellent book, The J-Curve

Thesis: China's Dilemma: Maximize PLA strength, limit Western influence, adopt hard-line foreign policy and meet protestors with soldiers OR join the international community, reform as the key to modernization, don't fight inevitable openness, focus on economic openness and growth.- Political and economic development is intertwined as China's economic expansion and global security becomes more and more dependent on political development. China is seen as a driver of both global stability and instability. CCP leadership wants to finance closed politics using China's open economic system. The question with regard to the Masses vs. Elites is whether or not the masses allow the elites total political control if CCP provides prosperity?

China on the J-Curve
Author's premise: China is still on the left side despite:1) emerging as int'l trading power; 2) joining WTO (12/2001), 3) opening to FDI, 4) opening to commercial contacts worldwide, 5) high level of communications connectivity to outside world; and 6) having the third largest GDP in world and annual growth rates greater 9% for last 25 years

Arguments for China on the right-side of the J-Curve
Summary: Chinese citizens' high level of communications connectivity and access to info in outside world, economic openness to foreign influence, financial independence of growing numbers of Chinese, and China's acceptance of foreign influence on its economic "rules of the road." - The Chinese economy is more open than other J-Curve left-siders: Iran, Saudi Arabia, Russia, N.Korea, Cuba. From the Maoist era of collective farms to "responsibility system" of leasing land to individuals...this freed workers for industries.
- 1980- CCP established Special Economic Zone enclaves of "managed capitalism"; tax breaks for investors; local leaders became more independent.
- 1984- 14 coastal cities opened to overseas investments; 1992- inland provincial capitals
- 2002- world's largest FDI recipient;within 30 yr period, received 10 times more than Japan from 1945-2000
- Regional efforts- ASEAN, bilateral trade agreement with Australia
- economic openness= internal change in China; foreign trade forces reform of commercial law, increases regulation, bureaucracies decrease, central gov't must respect/increase focus on int'l safety and environmental standards
- some limited debate of economic and social issues in the financial media
- Two important aspects that ensure foreign influence in establishing and enforcing China's economic "rules of the road": China's high-tech exports dominated by foreign investors; foreign funded enterprises produced 55% of China's exports in 2003 (high as compared to other Asian examples). Wholly-owned foreign enterprises (WOFEs) prevalent; foeign-owned firms not required to share proprietary knowledge with local Chinese partners, so Chinese growth dependent on imported technology, parts, and equipment.

Arguments for China on the J-Curve left-side

Summary: Chinese institutions are limited to a single party and no typical citizen rights and freedoms like press and media, right to protest, and religious and ethnic protections. China's is not a free society ("town square test"). China is a police state; the CCP is THE institution and has mandate to rule China; nothing is independent of the party; intolerant of political dissent; secretive economic and political decision-making. Openness on horizontal axis is openness to outside world and within a state's borders; measures freedom of access to info about government and society; if openness is increasing, then it is happening in spite of CCP efforts. The CCP maintains a monopoly on power primarily through secrecy (small number of elite in Politburo and Central Committee make all decisions). They maintain an "Iron triangle" to control citizens: hukou (restricts residence), dangan (secret personnel file), and danwei (work unit) still exist but CCP also suppresses political, labor and religious organizations and controls the media; initial 3 are more difficult since industrialism depends on labor force mobility. Social stability in China is not based on legal protections for minority groups (ex: repressions of Uighurs in Xinjiang Autonomous Region and 1990 rebellion, ethnic dilution through marriage; Tibetan Autonomous Region- Panchen Lama selected by CCP; Falun Dafa/Falun Gong banned following 1999 silent protest). The CCP approves all judicial appts; Political- Legal Committees influence cases. The media in China are state-owned or state-controlled; control reported stories, blocks BBC and Voice of America broadcasts, "the Great Firewall" blocking/censoring internet traffic

Economic reform is unsustainable without political reform. Power shift between state and society is overdue.

There are many examples of State's insufficient action for its people. Public protest is growing- 87,000 mass group incidents in 2005. Reform of SOEs has led to social dislocation and ill will among workers; demographic challenges of aging population; slowness of state to respond to public healthcare crises (SARS and AIDS); state has not sufficiently protected environment (acid rain, deserification, river pollution). Banks are insolvent; corruption within government; wealth gap growing (coast cities vs inland)

Which way on the J-Curve is China moving? reforming its way toward the right or will the CCP tighten its grip?

Reform indicated by: multicandidate elections beyond village level, non-party members competing for office, transparent govt decision-making, independent judiciary, free press, etc. The CCP tightens its grip to hide information about political protests, domestic crises, and to channel public anger to other targets. There is a contradiction of CCP rule over growing capitalism; protestors will become better organized as gap between rich and poor widens and technology allows demonstrations to circumvent the government.

Example: India vs. China

Politics and economics cannot be separated; political openness better guarantees long-term stability than economic openness does. Political openness prevents large-scale social and political shocks by allowing people to express anger/frustration legitimately. Economic openness in an authoritarian political system benefits only a few at first. Both are corrupt. India has opportunities to pressure leaders to address inequities and crises. China needs ‘release valve’; offers people no spiritual or public way to demand change from CCP. CCP is trying to engineer moving from left to right side w/out political instability. China seeks "harmonious and sustainable development." Prosperity, citizens' access to info, membership in multilateral institutions that can enforce rules on China's economic, legal, and political systems are forces that will open China.

How China Views the United States Post 9-11...

David Farber's new book,What They Think of Us: International Perceptions of the United States since 9/11, has some intriguing insights on how other countries see the United States, post 9-11. This excerpt is from the chapter on Chinese perceptions of the United States....

China's concerns that the United States had turned actively hostile were reinforced in the early 1990s by a series of unfortunate events. One of the most unpleasant occurred in the early fall of 1993 when the Chinese ship Yin He, which was carrying a load bound for Iran, was stopped in international waters by an American navy ship.

American intelligence officers believed the vessel was carrying ingredients for chemical weapons. However, when the ship was inspected no such cargo was found. This inciedent was widely reported in the Chinese mass media, and the public was furious with the United States, especially after the American government refused to apologize for the mistake.

This event, together with U.S. efforts to block China's bid for the 2000 Olympic Games, annual scrutiny of China's most favored nation status, and Washington's constant objection throughout the 1990s to China's entry into [the] World Trade Organization, were viewed by many Chinese as a continuation of nineteenth-century Western Imperialism. Deep-rooted suspicions about American intentions toward China began, once again, to grow....

The Chinese people are extremely aware of how American decisions affect their nation. They are, to put the matter gently, wary of American unilateralism and bellicosity. While relations are generally good, both sides, with some reason, look at one another with suspicion and mistrust, which is made worse by misunderstandings....

The American people need to realize the power they have in shaping Chinese images of the United States. They need to understand that China will become an ever greater force in the world and that working with China will produce far better results than working against China. With global challenges of all kinds ever present, America surely cannot go it alone, and in that regard it matters what the Chinese people think of the United States.

About Song Zuying: A Fan's Email

I've received an overwhelming response from my previous post about China's most famous soprano, Song Zuying. One fan of Song's is Frank, an 18 year old high school student from China, who was kind enough to educate me about Song Zuying's background. Here is an excerpt (my emphasis added):

...She is a great woman. She uses her voice and it touches the world. I think language may be a barrier, but we can find common language by the music, by her voice. Don't worry about when you might be able to listen to her again--she said she would join the opening ceremony in 2008 for the Beijing Olympic Games. If you come to China, you will see her again.

...She was born in a poor mountain village. When she was young, her father died and her little brother became disabled so there was no money for her to go to school. In order to send her to school her mother had to do the farm work and borrowed some money from others. With her dream, she never gave up! Finally she succeeded. With every performance she was more wonderful than the previous time. Her story touched many people in China. She is a kind-hearted woman: when she became a famous singer in China she never forget her poor hometown. She made many contributions to her hometown, allowing many children to go to school. During her concert in the USA, she missed her son's first birthday: she said that while she missed his birthday, her voice could help her child grow up, and one day when he’s grown-up, he wound be proud of his mother. Her album, the classic of songs in the Chinese Films, Over a Century, won a 49th Grammy Award nomination. A Great Woman!!!

Here are a few mp3 files of Song Zuying's music:

Download HarmonyChina.mp3

Download beautiful_china.mp3

Also of interest is the fact that Song Zuying is a navy veteran: In 1991, she was transferred to the Chinese People's Liberation Army Naval Political Department Song and Dance Troupe!

Suisheng Zhao: About the Emerging Chinese Nationalism...

Here is a summary-excerpt from Suisheng Zhao's excellent article, Chinese Nationalism and Its Foreign Policy Ramifications....

Nationalism is on the rise as a powerful force in China. It is not only advocated by many Chinese intellectuals, liberals and conservatives alike, and is even reflected in the popular mood. It can be observed on three levels: State, among intellectuals, and within popular society. The West should cultivate the pragmatic leadership in China in order to contain the the aggressive nationalist influence.

The Top-Down Promotion of Patriotism by the Communist State: After the end of the Cold War, the rapid decay of communist ideology became a grave concern of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). As faith in communism declined and citizens lost confidence in the communist regime, the CCP rediscovered the utility of nationalism. One of the most important actions was the launching oan extensive propaganda campaign of patriotic education shortly after the 1989 crackdown. Redefined the legitimacy of the post-Tiananment leadership in a way that would permit the Communist Party’s rule to continue on the basis of a non-Communist ideology. Deliberately blurred the lines between patriotism, nationalism, socialism, and communism. The wound of national humiliation inflicted on China in the past one hundred years was reopened.

The Intellectual Discourse on Nationalism: At the intellectual level, the mainstream of Chinese intellectual discourse experienced a drastic shift from enthusiastic worship of the West in the 1980s to deep suspicion of the West in the 1990s. Came as a result of China’s new position and the reassessment of China’s national interests shaped by conflicts in the post-Cold War world. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, China was no longer the quasi-partner of the U.S., but the only major communist power in the world. Chinese intellectuals believed there was a western conspiracy to contain China.

Nationalist Sentiment in the Popular Society: Rise of Mao Fever in the 1990s. Viewed Mao Zedong’s courage to stand firm against Western imperialism. Reflection of nationalism. “China’s problems have to solved by the Chinese people.”

Foreign Policy Implications of Chinese Nationalism: China had experienced a transition from an affirmative nationalism emphasizing an exclusive but positive “us,” to an assertive nationalism by adding a negative “Them.” Michel Oksenberg’s Four Categories of Chinese Nationalism:

1. Xenophobic Nationalism
2. Emotional Nationalism
3. Assertive Nationalism
4. Confidential Nationalism

Wanted to bring an end to a century of humiliation and subordination to the West and Japan that began with British imposition of the Treaty of Nanking in 1842.

Controlled Expression of Anti-American Nationalism: The relationship with the United States is the most crucial in China’s foreign relations. It is also the most frustrating foreign policy challenge for China’s leaders. Pragmatic leaders have tried to avoid the danger of falling victim to the nationalism that they have cultivated in order to ensure that China isn’t ruled by emotional university voices…have gone so far as to ban students from holding Anti-American demonstrations. The crisis caused by the accidental bombing of the Chinese embassy by the US in 1999 was a wake-up call. The crisis caused by the midair collision between a U.S. Navy EP-3 reconnaissance plane and a Chinese fighter jet over the South China Sea on April 1, 2001 further alarmed pragmatic leaders about the damage that uncontrolled nationalism could cause to China’s national interests. Officials made an effort to avoid a repeat of the previous situation and tried to orchestrate an official show of strong protest while making every effort to control popular expressions of nationalism.

The Lesson from the Embassy Bombing Crisis: In the wake of the U.S. bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade, which killed three Chinese journalists, both Chinese government officials and average Chinese found it impossible to comprehend how NATO forces led by the U.S. could have bombed a Chinese embassy by mistake. Chinese couldn’t accept NATO’s explanations since the U.S. had the most advanced munitions and intelligence…thought the U.S. was testing the waters for a future invasion of China. As soon as it was reported in China, there were huge demonstrations in front of the U.S. embassy in Beijing and consulates in other cities. The police were sympathetic to the students and didn’t at first make any effort to stop the students. The Chinese leadership underestimated the vehemence of the nationalism unleashed in China. Chinese people had a strong sense of being victimized. In spite of public pronouncements, pragmatic leaders tried to avoid a confrontational policy against the U.S. and the West. Deng issued his famous 24-Character principle for handling world affairs under the new situation: “Observe developments soberly, maintain our position, meet challenges calmly, hid our capacities and bide our time, remain free of ambition, never claim leadership.” Later evolved into an official 16 character principle in dealing with the U.S.: “enhancing confidence, reducing troubles, expanding cooperation, and avoiding confrontation.” Produced positive results with the U.S….resulted in Clinton’s proposal for a “Strategic partnership” with China….some more goodwill gestures…Six months after the incident, China and the U.S. reached a historic agreement on the terms of China’s accession to the WTO.

Managing the Midair Collision Crisis: a midair collision between a U.S. Navy EP-3 reconnaissance plane and a Chinese fighter jet over the South China Sea on April 1, 2001 created another crisis that once again highlighted the possibility of a popular explosion of nationalist sentiment. Chinese pilot was killed and immediately declared a “martyr of the revolution.”Beijing sought an apology from Washington but the White House declined to apologize, saying the collision was an accident. Chinese emphasized that the leadership must protect itself from criticism by ordinary Chinese by not appearing weak before the hawkish Bush administration. Yet at the same time, there should be no repeat of the anti-U.S. demonstrations after the embassy bombing in Belgrade. Following this policy, pragmatic Chinese leaders maintained control over the situation in Beijing’s streets.

It remains to be seen how long this type of authoritarian control can last. A more irrational and aggressive nationalism may yet prevail in China…could turn confrontational. Pragmatic nationalism is more defensive than aggressive.

The U.S. and the West should help China realize that it has acceptance and respect of the world…reduce its feelings of insecurity and promote feelings of healthy self-respect.